Posts Tagged ‘S&P 500’

The Dollar is Falling!

The dollar is falling… the dollar is falling!

That’s what I noticed today as the dollar index fell 0.59% (that’s big in the currency world).

It’s a big deal because a falling dollar has usually led to gains in equities. But this time the market ended the day mixed. The Dow Jones was up 0.43% and the S&P climbed 0.23%. The Nasdaq stuck out like a sore thumb, falling 0.21%. It seems that the old dollar/stock market pattern isn’t holding up as well as it used to.

This indicates to me that the dollar carry trade is losing some of its luster. In the end, these ultra-low interest rates probably won’t last forever.  I expect the dollar carry trade to be replaced with the Yen carry trade (since Japan apparently doesn’t believe in higher interest rates). The new Bank of Japan governor has also shown a preference for a weaker currency. So moving forward, we should see a big correlation between the Yen and the US stock market.

As you can expect from a falling buck, gold was on the up and up, gaining $14 to close at $1,151 an ounce.

Honestly, though, I wouldn’t read too much into a falling dollar. The market has been data driven as of late. Investors are all looking for signs that the recession is truly over. And as long as this week’s reports show an improving economy, the market could head higher, taking the US dollar along for the ride.

The report I’m most interested in is the December Consumer Price Index report this Friday. This report measures inflation at the consumer level. If this report shows a big bump in consumer prices, the market could easily sell-off. That’s because higher inflation means the Fed is more likely to boost interest rates.

And higher interest rates signal an end to cheap money.

Will the CPI come in very high? I doubt it. Gas prices were close to flat in December. And at the same time, retailers were discounting everything. So I wouldn’t be shocked if CPI came in at or under consensus (0.0%-0.1% gain).

At this point I’m cautiously bullish, especially on the commodity complex.

2010 Prediction

The market didn’t move one way or the other yesterday. The Dow Jones – the lagging index – ended the day slightly down. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed  slightly in the green.

The reason why the indexes didn’t move much had to do with economic news. The Commerce Department reported factory orders for November that were twice as good as what had been expected. This good news was offset by data that the National Association of Realtor’s Index of Pending Home Sales dropped 16%. That was the first drop in nine months.

Plus, dollar started trending higher again, moving up almost 1%. Not only did this put pressure on the stock market, but it also helped push down the price of spot gold by 3.35%.

When you look at the technicals, the market is pretty overbought. Don’t get me wrong, if the technicals were overbought and everyone hated the market, I’d probably take it as a sign of higher prices. But right now everybody is bullish.

The American Association of Individual Investors Bullish Ratio hit its highest level since February of 2007. The market topped out later that year.

Another sentiment indicator, the Investors Intelligence Advisors’ Survey (they all sound the same), showed the lowest percentage of bears since March of 1987. We all know what happened a few months later…

So, while investors can stay bullish for a long time, the contrarian in me says that we’ll see a drop in the next 3-6 months. But that’s not the only reason why i think we’ll see a drop in the second half of the year.

During a typical recovery, the inventory rebuild leads to more jobs, which leads to more domestic consumption, which finally starts a growth cycle. But right now, consumers are up to their ears in debt. Most have been laid off. And a good number have seen their hours cut. People out there are picking and choosing what bill to pay. And the credit card ends up being the last one.

Consumer demand can’t take off in that type of environment. Cash is tight. And the next dollar is used to pay the next bill.

To make matters worse, the Fed may end up tightening in response to this inventory rebuild and the effects of the stimulus. Could the Fed be so stupid? Sure they could!

Listen, the Fed typically begins tightening as soon as job growth begins. Over the next 12 months, the US government will hire up to 1.4 million people for the 2010 census. And even though these 1.4 million jobs will probably only last about 6 months, it could definitely push the labor market up over the next few months.

It’s enough to make you go “hmmm”.

An overbought market with record bullishness… poor consumers… and tighter money, spells a recipe for a nasty second half.

The Trend is Your Friend

Listen, I don’t know how many times I have to repeat that the trend is your friend.

I mean seriously, have a beer with the trend. Talk with the trend. Don’t try and punch it in the face. The trend is stronger than you are. And it WILL smash your face in if you’re not careful.

While bears were out celebrating a stronger dollar and trying to spit in the trend’s face, the trend came back and hunted them down with a machine gun from a helicopter flying overhead.

If I recall correctly (and I do, because my blog tells me so) two days ago I told you to be careful about calling the recent 3-day rout another bear market.

And today, just like that, the Dow popped right back above its 20-day moving average.

Not only that, but the RSI is heading higher (forming an uptrend even) and the Slow Stochastic is nearly crossing over and heading higher as well.

That’s not all though. If you look at the dollar index, the buck is clearly overbought. And today, it was practically unchanged. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the dollar decline over the next few days.

If you’re bold, you might want to start buying.

If you’re a little more on the safe side, then wait for the dollar index to get back under its 50-day moving average before jumping into the market. At the very least, pay attention to the S&P 500 and make sure it gets above its 20-day moving average.

Oh what the hell. I’ll probably tell you as soon as it happens anyways.